Mathematicians regard events with probabilities smaller than x as impossible
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Claim
Mathematicians regard events with probabilities smaller than x as impossible.
Source
- Anon, 1985. Life--How Did It Get Here? Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York, Inc., pg. 44.
- Totten, R. (1999). A Mathematical Proof of Intelligent Design In Nature. WorldView Test Site. Retrieved on 2008-04-15.
Responses
- Ask any mathematician if it is true that epsilon = 0 for every epsilon smaller than x. He or she will think you are crazy.
- Borel's Law, or the Strong Law of Large Numbers, is intended to show convergence in mathematical integration and not explanations of natural phenomena.
- Picking one event out of a great many possible events just because it actually happened, then compute the probability of that single event, is a misuse of statistics. You have to compute the total probability of the set all similar events.
- Throw dice and note the result. Repeat n times, until 1/6 to the power of n reaches x. The probability of you having thrown exactly the result you got will then be lower than or equal to x. If the claim were right, you would have done the impossible.
- This is not fallacious so much as just plain wrong. But even if it were correct, it says nothing about reality, and certainly nothing about evolution.
- add more responses
Fallacies contained in this claim
- Red Herring (evolution is not a mathematical theorem with probability smaller than x)
- Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy (you can't figure the odds of an event after it happens)
References
- Cobb, Loren (2005). Borel's Law and Creationism. Retrieved on 2008-04-16.
External Links
- Law of large numbers. Wikipedia. Retrieved on 2008-04-16.
- Mark Isaak's page on the calculation of odds. [1]
- Musgrave, Ian (December 21, 1998). Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations. Talk.Origins. Retrieved on 2008-04-15.
- Stockwell, John (March 13, 2002). Borel's Law and the Origin of Many Creationist Probability Assertions. Talk.Origins. Retrieved on 2008-04-16.
- Robson, Thomas. Creationism and Pseudomathematics. National Center for Science Education. Retrieved on 2008-04-16.
Related claims
- The odds of life forming are incredibly small
- First cells couldn't come together by chance
- It is mathematically impossible to achieve macroevolution by mutation and natural selection
- The chances of related mutations occurring are too low
See Also
Why is Creationism not a Scientific Theory?

