Dawkins acknowledges that generation of a self-replicator is more than improbable

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Contents 1 Claim 2 Source 3 Responses 4 Fallacies contained in this claim 5 External Links 6 Related claims 7 See Also 8 References 9 Acknowledgments

Claim

Richard Dawkins admits the accidental formation of the first self-replicating molecule was exceedingly improbable.

Source

• Anon, 1985. Life--How Did It Get Here? By Evolution or By Creation? Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York, Inc., p. 39

Responses

1. In his book, "The God Delusion", he states that it would be alright if abiogenesis were extremely improbable, since it only needs to happen once. When one thinks about all the planets in the universe, it would be bound to happen somewhere, even if the odds are 100 billion to one.
2. In our galaxy there are over 100 billion stars. In The Universe, there are over 100 billion galaxies. This means that the number of stars in all of the galaxies on the Universe is 10^22 or a 1 followed by 22 zeros. That is The earth is 4.6 billion years old and the oldest life found is 3.7 billion years[1]. So life had 900 million years to appear on a planet circling one of the 10^22 stars. This doesn't seem to be that improbable.
3. According to the book Probability 1 by Amir D. Aczel, the probability of intelligent life arising from natural causes in a universe infinitely large is 1.
4. Strictly speaking, probability theory only addresses things that may happen in the future. We can talk about the wild improbability of abiogenesis ad infinitum, as Dawkins does. The probability of the random generation of life from non-life under experimental conditions is so low that it approaches 0. It is a mischaracterization of probability to use this as a science-stopping argument. Abiogenesis occured, therefore an examination of the probability of this occurence is little more than an interesting theoretical exercise.
5. add more responses

Fallacies contained in this claim

• Appeal to Authority (Dawkins said it, so it must be true.)
• Quoting Out of Context (Dawkins is not really against abiogenesis.)
• Loaded Question (The argument states that the generation of self-replicators is improbable, and argues that Dawkins admits that "fact".)
• Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy (cannot assign odds to an event that has already happened)
• Straw Man (complexity of first life overstated)
• Red Herring (evolution is independent from abiogenesis)

External Links

• Shapiro, Robert (June 2007). A Simpler Origin for Life. The Rational Response Squad.
• Dawkins, Richard. The Selfish Gene.
• Abiogenesis. Wikipedia.
• Mallove, Eugene F. (May 9, 1990). Self-Reproducing Molecules Reported by MIT Researchers. TechTalk.
• Rebek, Julius, Jr. Synthetic Self-Replicating Molecules. (technical)

Related claims

• The odds of life forming are incredibly small
• First cells couldn't come together by chance
• Even the simplest life is incredibly complex
• Evolution is baseless without a theory of abiogenesis
• Naturalistic mechanisms do not provide a means for making life from simple molecules

See Also

Abiogenesis

Why is Creationism not a Scientific Theory?

References

Gribbin, John The Scientists Random House (2002)

Acknowledgments